November Sales Vardia Insurance Group and the portfolio

Sales Vardia - November

Vardia is still going strong, even if its under my forecast. Sales figures from November are up 67% to 104.7 million NOK compared to 62.8 million NOK last year in November. At the moment we have 3 months in a row that Vardia deliver over 100 million NOK in sales, which is impressive.

My forecast for this month were 115-120 million NOK in sales.
The things that are affecting the numbers and are a bit concerning:

• Denmark are still not up to speed, only contributed with 4.8 million NOK. I expected Denmark to contribute with around 15-20 million.
• Second month in a row with declining sales, could be due to local holidays & number of days in the month. Important to look after this in the upcoming months.
• Sales from Norway dropped an certain amount this month compared to the next. Dont really now why, could be seasonal patterns. Important to look after in the upcoming months.

Still my forecast on Vardia is positive, I think a share price at the moment should be around 40 NOK and in the future should be valued after 1.0 x GWP. I expect the GWP for 2015 to be around 55-60 NOK, which should imply the same share price. Last week I doubled up my position in Vardia.

Portfolio today:

Hennes & Mauritz - 28.11% of the portfolio - Bought at 213.58 SEK

Protector Forsikring -28.8% of the portfolio - Bought at 38.75 SEK

Vardia Insurance - 24.9% of the portfolio - Bought at 28.09 SEK

Tesco (TSCDY) -16.22% of the portfolio - Bought at 102.75 SEK 

Cash - 1.8 % of the portfolio - Will try to grow this to be around 10-15% of the portfolio.

As you see I have sold McDonalds after their last sales numbers. I received 4.7% profit due to the currency. I will present an analysis on McDonalds as I promised you guys (its almost done).

Merry Christmas and Happy New Years!

/EWI