Bi-weekly Roundup and Forecast December Sales Vardia

Its time to start with Bi-weekly roundups to keep track on my last two weeks and see that I am on the right track to make my goals for 2015. This post will also include some thought for the sales figures that Vardia Insurance is announcing tomorrow.

Lets start with the financials for the first 11 days of this year.

The salary for December was really good due to a bonus, ended up at a salary income at 3215 euros. It has been some bad consumption during these days, would like to highlight some of them.

• Bought designer plates and forks for 750 SEK (approx. 78 euros).
• 113 Euros are spent on alcoholic beverages.
• 48 Euros spent on taxi trips.

As you see always room for improvment, on the other hand if you deduct these expenses the month has been really good I must say, at the moment 2169 Euros are left when all invoices are paid. The forecast is to have 2000 euros left when the new salary are dropping in on the account the 28th January.

The portfolio is up 2.08% for 2015 which is great but I would have preferred to see falling share prices instead. Just by the simple reason that I know I will be a net buyer of stocks in at least 7-8 years from now on. The portfolio still consists of the same companies, allocation in brackets. 

• Hennes & Mauritz (28.1%)
• Protector Forsikring (29.3 %)
• Vardia Insurance (24.5%)
• Tesco (18.01%)

The company which will get my next purchase is Vardia Insurance. Vardia is the stock with the best intrinsic value. Target price is 1.0 x GWP (Gross written premiums) are now at the moment around 35 NOK, and forecast for 2015 are 50-55 NOK in GWP. Will continue to buy the stocks until we have a valuation on 1.0 x GWP and if nothing happens in terms of falling sales for example.

Forcast December Sales Vardia

I assume 16 full working days in December (normal month consists of 21 days). Which is 23% less working days from a normal month. I apply a growth on 1% and then deduct the loss in working days, after the calculus we assume that the sales will be around 80.295 million NOK in December, will be really interesting to see were we end up tomorrow.

Over and out,

EWI