Vardia Insurance - December Sales

Finally the sales for Vardia Insurance arrived, lets have a look at them.

As expected the total sales were lower in December than in November, 79M NOK versus 105M NOK, due to the Christmas holiday. 79M NOK is an OK number but not more than that would I say, my forecast were slightly higher as could be seen here:December Sales Forecast

Let's do the calculation to see how the sales actually were adjusted to working days.
I assume Vardia's employees only are on duty working days, which is 5 days a week. As far as I could find none of the countries Vardia is operating in had local holidays in November, which is Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

Let's start,

November
20 full working days. Which is below average, normal month has 21 working days.

December
If we consider local holidays in December we sum up to 18 full working days. Local holidays for all the countries are as you probably know, Christmas Eve, Christmas day, Boxing day, New Years Eve. In other words, but how people are actually only taking the local holidays off during Christmas?

Not so many people I would say..  So the real question we should ask us are if sales people at Vardia took additional vacation during Christmas? Most likely.. 

For me this question is impossible to answer, but I could assume from my experience from family and friends that a normal person has around 6 days vacation during Christmas which means that December had 15 full working days. As I said above November consisted on 20 full working days and the outcome of November were 105M NOK in sales.
December consisted of 75% of the working days of November (15/20). If we after that multiply that 75% with the sales of November to see the sales numbers of November applied on the same working days as December, we get:

105M NOK x 75% =  78.75M NOK

Assume then a modest growth on 1%:

78.75M x 101% = 79.53M NOK

In other words we missed target with approximately 800K NOK which is almost nothing but its not a magnificent month for Vardia. Although my view on Vardia is still the same, the company should at least be valued as 1.0 x GWP, which should be around 36 NOK per share now. On the other hand as longer the price stays low as more shares I could come over.

Important to highlight is that 1.0 x GWP are a very modest valuation and with the sales growth we seen in the last year for Vardia an even higher valuation wouldnt have surprised me at all. 

Sincerely,

Eighth Wonder Investing