Marvelous Company, Marvelous Numbers - Protector Q4 2015

As probably no one has missed by now in the blog world, Protector's Q4 report was astonishing and the stock market received it with open arms. Protector is now up 10.11% since the announcement of the report.
The best announcements in the report from my side were that Sweden and Denmark are now showing profit and that is under extreme growth. Sweden is growing GWP by 121%, Denmark with 89% and Protector overall with 28% to 2375M NOK (1861).

Here are some more candy from the report,

• Protector forecast higher profit 2015 and with 18% growth.
• Protector increases the dividend from 1.75 NOK to 2 NOK. 14.28% increase!
• Combined net ratio down to 84.5% from 86.7% last year.
• Investment portfolio know has a value of 4 958M NOK up from 3 999M NOK last year.
• Profit per share grew from 3.47 NOK to 4.63 NOK.

New target price for Protector are 68 NOK, this comes from that I think they will make around 5.785 NOK per share. Which means a profit growth on 25% and a future P/E 11.75, should be doable for the great company Protector!

Besides Protector's marvelous announcements I have increased my share in Vardia Insurance at the price 27.9 NOK with 1400 shares. Total numbers of shares in Vardia are now 3200 shares and a total market value of 102 486 SEK. I will continue to grow my shares in Vardia since that it the most udnervalued company at the moment.

Best regards,

Eighth Wonder Investing

Summary of January

Time for the summary of the first month in 2015. 

Must say that it has been a great month, a lot of action, but great.

Let's start with the first thing, I actually sold (it doesn’t happen often) Tesco this month.  I haven’t been very impressed about how they have been performing over the time I owned the stock, declining sales almost quarter after quarter and accounting troubles etc. After the last increase of the share price I decided that it’s time for me and Tesco to say good bye to each other for this time at a share price in SEK after costs of 85.490 SEK (TSCDY, OTC).

In other words the portfolio at the moment are only consisting of 3 companies, Protector Forsikring, Vardia Insurance and Hennes & Mauritz. I must admit that for me a portfolio consisting only of 3 companies are way to focused. The target is to own a portfolio consisting of 5-8 companies, but as you probably noticed its hard to find wonderful companies at a fair price when S&P 500 are doing new highs every week.

Next buy will be Vardia Insurance if their sales numbers for January are in line with my forecast.

Achievements January 2015

• The portfolio had a great performance the last month and are up to today had an increase of 12.12% this year with a total value at 239 703 SEK (approx. 26 330 EUR). 
• In terms of savings was 12 000 SEK transferred to the portfolio for future stock purchases.
• New ATH (all time high) for the portfolio.
• Amortized my student debt with the total amount of 1893 SEK, not much but still in line with the goals.

Improvements for February

• Save more money, still wasting money on things I don't need.
• Do more analysis of companies.

Transactions updated with the sell of Tesco.

Transactions:

2015/01/27 – SELL Tesco – 487 share +41 638 SEK

2014/12/30 - Dividend Tesco +165.3 SEK

2014/12/17 - BUY Vardia Insurance Group - 1000 shares - 26 911 SEK
2014/12/17 - BUY Protector Forsikring - 720 shares - 24 820 SEK
2014/12/16 - Dividend MCD +521.34 SEK
2014/12/09 - SELL MCD +54 810 SEK
2014/10/08 - BUY Vardia Insurance Group - 800 shares - 23 647 SEK
2014/07/16 - Dividend Tesco +1728.49 SEK
2014/07/08 - BUY Protector -720 shares -30 983 SEK
2014/06/17 - Dividend MCD +430.4 SEK
2014/05/17 - Dividend H&M +1662.5 SEK
2014/03/19 - Dividend MCD +411.12 SEK
2013/12/17 - Dividend MCD +425.57 SEK
2013/01/07 - Dividend Tesco +712.98 SEK
2012/05/10 - Dividend H&M +1662.5 SEK
2011/12/12 - BUY H&M - 175 shares - 37 376.6 SEK

Best regards,

Eighth Wonder Investing

Protector Forsikrings Forecast and Announcement January 20th 2015

Brief notes about the announcement from Protector today.

Protector (PROTCT) today announced their own forecast and a significant volume increase for year 2015.
Their CEO Sverre Bjerkeli said this today about 2015:

"The Company experiences strong growth in January and expects Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to increase to 18% (15% measured in local currencies) over full year 2015. Norwegian business areas will contribute with single-digit growth, while Sweden / Denmark will grow approximately 50% in aggregate. Gross and net written premiums are expected to experience identical growth rates. 

This text is really a statement that Protector Forsikring has just started, 18% (!) growth is magnificent and really show how much hidden value there is in this insurance company. A wonderful company like this should be traded at higher price, that's it. Mr. Market wake up!!

Looking forward for the 2014 annual report 12th February.

Other highlights in the announcement were:

• Strong premium growth in Q4, up 19% since last Q4. Gross premiums written amounted 282 million NOK.
• Net GWP Q4 was 250 million NOK, up 24% since last Q4.
• GWP 2014 were 2.375 million NOK, up 28% since last year.

Over and out,
EWI

Portfolio and Transactions - New page on the blog

Decided that its time to be more transparent in my portfolio and to track the transactions, just because of two reasons, first that it will be a nice thing for me to have during this journey and secondly that I hope it will inspire someone to start the same adventure as I will do.

Below you could see how the report will look like, yes I know very simple. The report will be updated monthly with the consisting portfolio and the done transactions during the period.

Best Regards,
Eighth Wonder Investing


Latest update: 18012015

I am at the moment invested in 4 companies. My portfolio and the changes will be updated once a month. All values in the portfolio summary will be denoted in SEK, total value of portfolio and changes will be denoted in SEK and EUR.

Portfolio today:

Transactions:

2014/12/30 - Dividend Tesco +165.3 SEK

2014/12/17 - BUY Vardia Insurance Group - 1000 shares - 26 911 SEK
2014/12/17 - BUY Protector Forsikring - 720 shares - 24 820 SEK
2014/12/16 - Dividend MCD +521.34 SEK
2014/12/09 - SELL MCD +54 810 SEK
2014/10/08 - BUY Vardia Insurance Group - 800 shares - 23 647 SEK
2014/07/16 - Dividend Tesco +1728.49 SEK
2014/07/08 - BUY Protector -720 shares -30 983 SEK
2014/06/17 - Dividend MCD +430.4 SEK
2014/05/17 - Dividend H&M +1662.5 SEK
2014/03/19 - Dividend MCD +411.12 SEK
2013/12/17 - Dividend MCD +425.57 SEK
2013/01/07 - Dividend Tesco +712.98 SEK
2012/05/10 - Dividend H&M +1662.5 SEK
2011/12/12 - BUY H&M - 175 shares - 37 376.6 SEK

November Sales Vardia Insurance Group and the portfolio

Sales Vardia - November

Vardia is still going strong, even if its under my forecast. Sales figures from November are up 67% to 104.7 million NOK compared to 62.8 million NOK last year in November. At the moment we have 3 months in a row that Vardia deliver over 100 million NOK in sales, which is impressive.

My forecast for this month were 115-120 million NOK in sales.
The things that are affecting the numbers and are a bit concerning:

• Denmark are still not up to speed, only contributed with 4.8 million NOK. I expected Denmark to contribute with around 15-20 million.
• Second month in a row with declining sales, could be due to local holidays & number of days in the month. Important to look after this in the upcoming months.
• Sales from Norway dropped an certain amount this month compared to the next. Dont really now why, could be seasonal patterns. Important to look after in the upcoming months.

Still my forecast on Vardia is positive, I think a share price at the moment should be around 40 NOK and in the future should be valued after 1.0 x GWP. I expect the GWP for 2015 to be around 55-60 NOK, which should imply the same share price. Last week I doubled up my position in Vardia.

Portfolio today:

Hennes & Mauritz - 28.11% of the portfolio - Bought at 213.58 SEK

Protector Forsikring -28.8% of the portfolio - Bought at 38.75 SEK

Vardia Insurance - 24.9% of the portfolio - Bought at 28.09 SEK

Tesco (TSCDY) -16.22% of the portfolio - Bought at 102.75 SEK 

Cash - 1.8 % of the portfolio - Will try to grow this to be around 10-15% of the portfolio.

As you see I have sold McDonalds after their last sales numbers. I received 4.7% profit due to the currency. I will present an analysis on McDonalds as I promised you guys (its almost done).

Merry Christmas and Happy New Years!

/EWI

October sales Vardia Insurance Group

Vardia Insurance Group presented strong sales figures for October this week, 11th November. The total new sales in Sweden, Norway and Denmark in October were 106.4 million NOK (66.4 million NOK) which is an increase of 60.2% from October 2013. Norway contributed with 59.4 million NOK, Sweden with 43.3 million NOK and Denmark with 3.6 million NOK.

For me personally it's a bit under my estimation since I expected total sales for fiscal year 2014 to be 1112 million NOK. I really thought sales for October should have been around 113-117 million NOK with Denmark contributing with atleast 9-10 million NOK to the sales. It's no panic yet about the numbers for my forecast, but it would have been nice to be on the right side. To get my sales forecast of 1112 million NOK Vardia has to close business of 252 million NOK in the two upcoming months, which I think  could be hard because of christmas holidays.

Since Denmark was a disappointment I really hope they are steeping up now for the last two months of the year. If they do I am sure Vardia will show profit for at least some month this year and the concern about the cash problem will go away and we could see a more normal valuation for Vardia.

Here are the actual sales for 2014 up to October (rounded),

I also bought some more companies, Mc Donalds (MCD) and Protector Forsikring (PROTCT). Mc Donalds for a price of 95.3 USD per share and Protector for a price of 36.2 NOK per share. More info and analysis will come in the upcoming weeks.


Over and out,

EWI